In a recent Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™ published on LinkedIn—originally released earlier on MiamiCondo.Club—the Miami Condo Club team analyzed a new Wall Street Journal article that confirms their prior forecast of a 2025 financial crisis hitting Florida condo associations.
Back in June 2024, the team projected that Florida’s condo associations would face severe financial strain by 2025. That prediction now appears to be playing out, as detailed in the Wall Street Journal article titled “Why Florida’s Condo Owners Are So Desperate to Sell.” The piece describes how condo owners are rushing to sell their units, often at steep discounts, as they struggle with rising maintenance fees, special assessments, and soaring insurance costs.
The article opens with a blunt statement: “Florida is contending with a condo crisis, and the ballooning costs of ownership are a big reason why.”
One major factor accelerating the crisis is the expansion of Fannie Mae’s “blacklist,” which now includes over 1,400 Florida condo associations. These buildings are no longer eligible for financing due to issues such as inadequate insurance or urgent repair needs—making it difficult for potential buyers to secure mortgages.
At the time of the initial prediction, Fannie Mae had a limited blacklist, and the extent of future economic headwinds—such as President Donald Trump’s international trade policies—was unknown. These policies have since contributed to global market volatility and deterred foreign condo buyers, particularly Canadians, who are now exiting the Florida market in increasing numbers.
In response to these conditions, the Miami Condo Club launched the Miami Condo Association Financial Cliff Investors Index™ on January 1, 2025. This tool tracks 23 distinct condo markets across South Florida, from Coral Gables to West Palm Beach, encompassing Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.
Using this index, the team successfully predicted a decline in condo prices during the first quarter of 2025. The Miami Condo Cliff Index™, updated weekly, monitors financial health in the condo market through active listings and pending sales, with a particular focus on both general and “Vintage” condos—those at least 30 years old.
Unlike conventional real estate statistics, which are often delayed, this index provides near real-time insights into market conditions and anticipated trends, offering a forward-looking perspective that precedes official quarterly data.
For the first time in roughly 15 years, developers have started approaching the team to explore bulk sales of unsold condo units or discounted “luxury” development sites. These developers insist their projects are not distressed but are seeking price discovery and institutional interest. During the 2008 financial crisis, similar bulk deals allowed developers to offload inventory and helped investors acquire assets below replacement cost.
Encouraged by the accuracy of their initial forecast, the Miami Condo Club is now doubling down on a controversial January 2025 prediction: a 40% decline in South Florida condo prices from the peak of the pandemic-era buying boom. Although market forecasting is often unpredictable, the team believes current macroeconomic signals are clear—especially to those who experienced the Great Recession.
To assess the 40% price drop prediction, the following average condo prices per unit will serve as benchmarks at the end of the Winter 2025 buying season:
- South Florida Overall: $602,500
- Miami-Dade County: $880,600
- Broward County: $345,400
- Palm Beach County: $571,400